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Steven Hodson posted an entry on WinExtra

The iPhone fails the First Use test

Monday at 10:31 am - Link

Brett Nordquist, J. Phil and Aram Zucker-Scharff liked this

this is actually the first post by WinExtra's first full time contribibutor - Alexander van Elsas - Steven Hodson

I agree in theory with Alexander's stance on the iPhone, but personally, I find that paired with a bluetooth headset it works quite well as a light-use cell phone. As a PDA it is almost bar-none. For me, it's the right mix. - J. Phil

J Phil. I actually never got the iPhone to work with a very standard bluetooth headset. But apart from that I find that the phone functionality is simply mediocre, regardless of the innovative interface. It's that interface that gets in the way causing me to make a lot of mistakes, even after months of use. - Alexander van Elsas

I am a bit slower when typing on the virtual keyboard, and I do miss the lovely thumb-keyboard that my Sidekick 3 had, but I sort of dislike all smaller-than-fullsize keyboards fairly uniformly. Have you messed with WritingPad yet? If Apple offered the WritingPad keyboard as a replacement virtual keyboard, man it would be great. - J. Phil

J Phil, the lack of tactile feedback is killing the entire typing experience for me. I can type blindly when there are actual keys to press, but it's impossible to do so when all there is is a super-cool touch screen. - Alexander van Elsas

Dave Winer posted an entry on Scripting News

Could Vista fail?

August 8 at 6:49 am - Link

Zio Bonino, Matthew Reed, Haris bin Ali, Werner Ranner and 14 other people liked this

You ask as though it hasn't already happened. - Brent Logan

Re: #2. My main beef with Vista is the loss of control. I have to phone MS for permission to use my OS after a re-install. Unsolicited balloon tips popping up everywhere, providing me with useless information. Rebooting my machine without permission, or pestering me every 15 mins to reboot. - Paul Grav

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I like Vista - andy brudtkuhl

Right on the money. I think for developers like myself, Vista is utterly attrocious. I just doesn't gel with anything else other than developing on .Net using Visual Studio. Sure you can run Python & Ruby on Vista, but the "method of development" and the interface to those technologies is sooo much more clunky than on Mac OS X or Ubuntu. - Ijonas

Isn't the rapid release of the next windows and the support extention pretty much saying that MS expects Vista to never get picked up by enterprise? - Aram Zucker-Scharff via twhirl

The answer is no. Vista is selling incredibly well with new PC's and the installed base is already huge by any reasonable measure. The adoption rate is well within the ballpark set for other major OS upgrades like XP. There have been no major security flaws and in fact Vista's track record on this is great. What would define "failure" then? It sells. It sells well and the adoption rate is good. There is a PR problem - but that is soluble. - Soulhuntre

Better question - when did Vista "jump the shark" or what feature pushed it over the edge? - Wayne Schulz

Anyway, even if it fails in the sense of sales, I still think that--for all the bad PR--Vista is a pretty good OS, I love using it on my laptop. - Aram Zucker-Scharff via twhirl

@Soulhunte. You mean, PCs are selling well. End users don't have a choice, unlike businesses. According to HP: "What we have been able to do with Microsoft is ship PCs with a Vista Business licence but with XP pre-loaded. That is still the majority of business computers we are selling today." - Paul Grav

Another thing -- in the 90s, before blogging was big, Microsoft had a big outreach program to build buzz around its products. It was really impressive. Now that blogging is established -- nothing -- silence. Esp when there's so much buzz around Apple, this may be the biggest mistake they're making with Vista. - Dave Winer

LOL @Brent Logan. Vista is the reason our soon-to-be purchased laptops will be Macs. It will be the first time in 25 years. I will use a mac on purpose or without getting paid/forced to do so. We're running XP on all of computers and we know we'll have to "upgrade" soon. - faboo mama

@Soulhuntre: Seconding @Paul Gray; Arguing that Vista's install base is huge, and that it's commercial adoption rate is high (and the product is therefore 'successful') is much like arguing that cramped, uncomfortable seats continue to be the most popular ones in air travel. And re: 'PR problem': I have to agree with you there. Thousands of pesky users vociferously hating your product is a real PR nightmare. - Derrick Burns

Assuming Windows 7 is on schedule, we'll be seeing RTM in a little over 12 months. So for the users currently on XP, what's the point in upgrading to Vista when it'll soon be obsolete. @Soulhuntre. I don't think MS have enough time to solve their PR problem. The damage is already done, and MS will be busy selling Windows 7 by the time they get anywhere close to fixing it. MS are just limiting the damage at the moment. - Paul Grav

Media Center on Vista works really well and is a great improvement over the previous version. - Thomas Hawk

Dave? It's 404 =( - Mona N.

MS still actively promotes its products; it may be Dave's just not getting freebies or phone calls or other coddling from them anymore. Must be a slow news day. As for biz use, Vista uptake isn't really much slower than XP's was, or any other Windows version for that matter. Considerably more secure by default, Media Center's greatly improved... lots to like. I think the MS logo is the biggest mental hurdle for most people to overcome. An Apple logo on the box would have people vigorously humping Vista. - abacab

seems a bit unfair to slam windows for malware and then refuse to try the version that attempts to do something about it. Personally, I like Vista. I use it and OS X daily, and can't really say I prefer one too much over the other. - Rob

@Thomas. My experience of Windows Media Center has always been positive but according to Paul Thurrott, it doesn't seem like MS is putting much resources into it anymore. http://twit.tv/ww67 - Paul Grav

404 for me too. - Art

The permalink is 404'd but its the first story on http://www.scripting.com/ - Jesse Wolgamott

If we aren't going measure success in objective terms like adoption rate, sales, market share or income generation then what possible measure do we use? Do things fail just because the vocal A-list pundit-o-sphere doesn't like it (and usually hasn't tried it?). That makes no sense. The HP thing is a non-issue as well.. at this point in XP's life biz was still buying new machines with the old OS as well. - Soulhuntre

BTW - the best current information points Windows 7 as targeted for 2010 which is well in keeping with the release cycles we see from MS. We will see widespread beta availability at least 12 months before an RTM release. There is no financial or technical reason to try and rush Windows 7 out the door. Once again, Vista is doing just fine (despite attempts to paint it as a failure) so it's not necessary to push W7 ahead in the time line. Besides, releasing R7 in 12 months wont SOLVE any PR problem. - Soulhuntre

@Paul - don't agree that "end users have no choice" when they increasingly do choose other PCs running Mac OS, Linux, etc. And if you admit that some users choose not to purchase Windows PCs then you have to admit that the rest *are choosing* to purchase Windows PCs. - Alan Cheslow

Vista is better than XP, except in the case of older machines. I think most people bitching about Vista simply don't remember the early days of XP - an OS that brought the spyware plague upon us and didn't become remotely usable until SP2. Against XP in the same time period of its launch, Vista is *considerably* better. - Eric

I agree with Eric, I wish that my old desktop could run Vista. - Aram Zucker-Scharff via twhirl

It already did. Agree that MS will just do minimal damage control until they hump out Windows 7. - Steve Follmer via twhirl

But in the mean time, once you try Mac, you never go back. Why Apple is currently blowing their second chance in a few decades to sell their OS to everyone is beyond me. I guess they just can't break out of their comfort zone of selling notebook hardware in various pacakges. Pity. - Steve Follmer via twhirl

Vista feels like it was built with the noob in mind rather than the power user. Once UAC is turned off, it's not too terrible. I'm happy to see the OS fade into the background so I can get back to productive activities like Facebook and Twitter. :-) - Brett Nordquist

@Steve: That's because Apple would then have to support all kinds of new hardware. You know, the same kind of issue that hardware vendors made Vista have... - Jordan Hofker

@Eric Rice, but I do remember the early years of XP. I was so excited about it, installed it and got nothing but headache. It took them almost 2 yrs. to get it working right, but I had gone back to WinServer 2000 or whatever it was called. That forced my hesitation of acquiring Vista. After last year's rollout and watching my friends/clients being frustrating over some of the same issues that bugged us early XP adopters, I was fine with waiting. - faboo mama

@Alan. Well if you want to be pedantic, then "end users have no choice when buying a Windows machine". - Paul Grav

Vista has the feel of an operating system at the end of the Baroque era. The human interaction layer is migrating up the stack into the browser; the requirements for an OS can be much simpler. More Bauhaus. MSFT seems to sense this with Mesh and Midori. They need to establish a new cash machine before formally winding it down. - Cliff Gerrish

YES VISTIA WILL FAIL - Victor via twhirl

@Alan Cheslow: Keep in mind, though, that a large number of 'average users' barely understand that options like Mac or Linux exist, or, if they do, are afraid of stepping outside their computing comfort zone to learn a new system. Consequently, the 'choice' of operating system, for many people, is an illusory one; - Derrick Burns

"I think Microsoft is in bed with Hollywood" - And Apple isn't? What's with you guys who go on and on about being 'open' and 'free' but continue to use Apple products? Is there a more closed company than Apple? I don't like using XP anymore. Vista is a lot more usable *once-you-get-used-to-it* -- just like OS X and KDE/Gnome/Others on Linux. - Dileepa Prabhakar

If we are measuring success by OS usage figures, then Vista is a complete flop. 17 months after its release, XP was already at 29% usage. Vista in comparison is only at 11%. http://bit.ly/CKKl - Paul Grav

And @Everyone comparing Vista to early XP: yes, the first two years of XP were a disaster. And, yes, Vista at this stage is probably better all around than that first iteration of XP. But arguing that this makes Vista a good operating system is, to use yet another metaphor, like arguing that being shot in the foot is a really good thing because it hurts so much less than being shot in the stomach. Besides which, when did we resign ourselves to accepting "less painful than it could be" as good enough? - Derrick Burns

@Dileepa, you're absolutely right. I used to think MSFT was the dark side, but recently I watched Star Wars episode V with my kids. Yoda said that the dark side is "quicker, easier, more seductive." We all know who that is! - Bruce Lewis via fftogo

I have only been using Vista extensively for the past week or so (I actually went out and bought a copy of Home Premium). The installation went pretty much without a hitch and I have been using it without problems so far.I get why developers and such would find that working on Vista would be a pita, but for average users, it's just fine imo. - Haris bin Ali

I agree with a developer's post on your blog Dave. I run Vista 64-bit with 10GB RAM on a MacPro (desktop) and it runs extremely well. On notebooks it's a mixed bag--it depends what device you have as to whether everything installs, runs, and is as easy to use as it should be. There are some things that I find better than in XP though. For example, WIFI config is better (EVDO config still lags though), sleep and hibernate are MUCH more reliable (w/SP1), and battery monitoring is improved. The problem for low end notebooks with limited resources is another challenge to Vista. Here you don't have much choice but to use XP or strip down Vista using a 3rd party tool which I think breaks the license. To me the issue with Vista is that processors/RAM haven't caught up with it on the notebook side. Maybe with the convergence going on w/smart phones this won't happen for awhile and Vista will struggle till it gets thinner. - Loren Heiny

I will say it then, Vista is GREAT - Stephen Edgar

I think Vista is great and I actually use it. You in your post really had nothing concrete besides media speak that would lead anyone not to use Vista. You sound like most blogger s, you are quick to kill something that you don't use. I know many people that have this preconceived notion about vista and if you use it on a daily basis like I do you see its relevance. - Zach Scott

I use Vista on a daily basis. It irritates me. - Neil H

I agree that there really is no need for new OSes. Look at Linux, it has just a version number that keeps incrementing. It'll always be called Linux. An exception might be if MS makes a complete rewrite, perhaps a windows-less OS, the promise of Midori? http://impl.emented.com/2008/0... - Jonas Bolinder

Well, Linux is basically Unix with a different name. And OSX is Unix with a good user interface. Maybe OSs don't have to be new, but they can be better. - Chris White

Robert Scoble posted a message

“Some dope is saying that I don't realize I am a dope. Oh, I do. I have a 14-year-old to remind me of that everyday. On other hand this dope believes it is more valuable to build people up than tear them down. When I have been a real dope I forgot that. Onto other things. Hope your weekend is going...”

August 2 at 12:30 am - Link

siavash, Dobromir Hadzhiev, JMS, Marc Dahan and 50 other people liked this

Down with dopes. - Mike Doeff

one reason I haven't been here as much is I am working to build relationships with people who are building the industry up. That is why I was at Google and Adobe yesterday and a stealth startup and an eGov. builder today. - Robert Scoble

Show 26 more comments

My kids constantly remind me, too. ;-) - Chris Baskind

Mike: I don't mind dopes. It is the people who bring no value other than attacks that earn a block because they are jerks. - Robert Scoble

Not everyone figures out early on that building up those around you and supporting them simply raises the entire level of the people you get to be with in life. Some folks miss that tearing down everyone else doesn't build you up, it just lowers the common denominator. I'll be a dope right along with you. - Lucretia Pruitt

On the other hand I am so exited by some of the things I have seen this week. Really have my creativity going. - Robert Scoble

Us lucky guys with kids all get reminded we are dopes every day. We don't need any other help with that. Robert, you provide a rising tde that supports and nurtures great ideas - I saw you 'working the room' in Amsterdam in April, and it was awesome. Obviously this dope hasn't met you - those who have know that you're full of positive energy - critical at times, yeah - but an optimist and someone who's got an OPEN mind. - David Petherick

It must be weird to be popular in this way, Robert. From what I've noticed you seem to get praise and scorn in both broad amounts. How do you deal with that? - Nick

Looking forward to the next "I LOVE THIS!" :) - Charlie Anzman

Robert you are not a dope! I love the things you contribute to this community. I also love the fact that you can attend these conferences/events for me. heh I still remember you qiking the Google Campfire event. It was quite amazing and I felt like I was there learning with you! - Daynah

Nick: I don't know that I do handle it. I try to learn from it all. Most are great. Especially the ones who are really doing stuff to make all of our lives better. - Robert Scoble

Nick: one thing that keeps me balanced is the knowledge that someday I will be dead. So getting called a dope is pretty minor compared to that. A 32-year-old developer I know just learned he needs a bone marrow transplant or he will probably die soon. I will take being called a dope by 1,000 instead of going through what he is. So sad and it is unlikely he will find a match in time. He developed an app that 30 million are using. - Robert Scoble

Perspective. Yeah. I hear ya. - Nick

what a superb ending segue. Seriously though, sad indictment on society as a whole - Duncan Riley

In every place you can find some "gawkish weeds". I've seen many politicians building careers on this guys.The only thing that guides them is jealousy (period). - Nir Ben Yona

My 7 year old reminds me daily of what a dope I am. I imagine it's 2x as frequent with a 14 year old? Good perspective and keep up the dopiness! - Brett Nordquist

Dopey.... - geekazine

Quoting the Firesign Theatre; I think we're all bozos on this bus. :) - Scott Thomas

You're a good dope, Scobie! You're absolutely right, that more can be accomplished by building the industry/person/people up by positives than ripping on and tearing apart by negatives. Hey. Don't feel bad. Being blonde, I've always been a little dopey myself. Without the drugs. *grins* *hugs* - Sprite

To know that you do not know, is true knowledge. - Steve Follmer via twhirl

Pass the dope! - Steve Follmer via twhirl

Hey Robert? About your friend with the bone marrow issue? This would be a fabulous opportunity to use that platform that you've got to get people to visit http://www.marrow.org/ and find out about getting registered as bone marrow donors. It only takes *1* person with the match. I'll keep him in my thoughts and prayers. - Lucretia Pruitt

Wow this is great Robert. Seems like many so-called Web 2.0 comments come from people who are 10 feet tall as long as they're in their Mom's basement. It's easy to use the Web to attack when you don't have to stand toe - to - toe with the person you're attacking. I applaud your ability to deal with it. The old saying goes - it's easier to tear a barn down than to build one. This thread will remind me to pursue the builders - not the burners. - ScottBourne

Robert: there is so much wisdom in your comment, "one thing that keeps me balanced is the knowledge that someday I will be dead." Here, here! As my contribution I'll say that my Christianity reminds me what a moral dope I am and how I need to remember that when talking to others. - Jim Ierley

When I get called even worse I just think of Richard Feynman saying "What Do You Care What Other People Think?" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W... - Andrew Leyden

Gosh, there are a lot of us who would be working on a community building this morning, if Twitter hadn't blocked us all yesterday. Victims include @conniecrosby @davedelaney @tibbon @pfanderson @narain @skalik @marjanpanic ... http://getsatisfaction.com/twi... - Patricia F. Anderson

For me? The memory of basic trainign keeps me mellow. Whenever some fool is trying to insult me or hassle me I am like "Dude, meaner peopel than you, with more power over me, have tried to make me miserable. You're nothing". - Soulhuntre

Just wait until you have a 17 or 18 year old, Robert. Being called a "dope" or worse will be the least of your concerns. - TDavid

Robert: If you're a dope, then what does that make your accuser? We're all dopey at times. Perspective is a by-product of maturity and wisdom, which jerks rarely have, so you're very wise to weed them out of your garden! I personally think you are one of the most cool guys out there. I especially like your focus on "building" relationships which build the industry...neat! Keep it up!! - Susan Beebe

scoble is on the side of the good, and that is fabulous, we need a million more - gregory lent

yeah, but we still like you even if you are a dope, welcome to the "coolest dope crowd ever" group, umm, maybe we should make this a friend feed connection? LOL! :-) - dan

Robert Scoble posted an entry on Scobleizer -- Tech geek blogger

The Silicon Valley VC Disease

July 26 at 12:13 pm - Link

Franklin Pettit, Piaw Na, Venson Kuchipudi, Jeff P. Henderson and 64 other people liked this

I actually read the title as "The Silicon Valley VD Disease" ..and nearly jumped out of my seat !! :)- - Peter Dawson

I think the bigger issue is the fact that startups want to scale quickly. What happened to starting slow and small and letting the product naturally develop, grow a natural user base, before getting VC and super expanding? I guess it's not as sexy... - Johan Lieu

Show 59 more comments

Johan: startups have this attitude forced on them by the VC's. The VC's only give you enough money to go a year or two. If you don't build a business by then you either have to convince more VCs to give you another two years of cash, or you have to have a business up and running and generating more revenues than expenses by then. And the VCs don't like it if you just sit on the cash. They are hoping you come up with some dramatic business success. - Robert Scoble

I hope it's not contagious - paul mooney

Good post - my phone is not used to connect to the web but to text message. I can't get a handle on the iPhone yet, though. My daughter loves it and that's good enough for me. - LPH

The other term for this: Short-sightedness. - Eric Florenzano

ok I jumped off the seat and now back w/beer. :)_ yeah but if you have the right product and appliations , you dot need to shop for VC funds in the first place. The issue is that too many startups are in the markets and nothing really is getting innovated. VS are in to make money. Show me the money and I'll show you my term sheet. Simple investment talk. DOnt waste our time - Peter Dawson

+1 for Peter's "Silicon Valley VD Disease" .... LOL - Mitchell Tsai

Unfortunately VCs are not the best investors. Most are running scared. Even with their efforts, 85% of their investments fail (50% for the top firms). Creates a me-too mentality evident also in the Pharmaceutical industry. Real break-throughs may have less than 1% success rate. That is too scary for most VCs and pharma companies. - Mitchell Tsai

And you can only imagine how frustrating this is for biotech (and explains the lack of funding). Takes 10 years to see some results, 3-5 if you are providing services) - Deepak

Thanks for writing this post, Robert. You're saying better than a lot of us what I'm sure some of us are thinking. It's unfortunate that this kind of thinking can actually prevent innovation and seems counter to the original American entrepreneurial spirit. We all lose when a good idea doesn't get funded to grow as well or as quickly as it could. - Cathryn Hrudicka

There's also the ROI and IRR disease in the VCs. Typical businesses have maybe a 50% success rate (where success is not the VC - 5X my money in 5 years, but includes I-just-want-to-pay-my-salary companies). The VC pressure to provide decent returns pushes many companies to failure. Rule of thumb: If you aren't willing to take out a loan at 40% annual interest (because your company's opportunity is so big & needs fast speed), don't ask VCs and smart angels. "Inexperienced" angels is ok. - Mitchell Tsai

P.S. I'm sitting on a lot of worthless pre-public stock. It's tough to be an investor too. - Mitchell Tsai

the home-run, quick-hit mentality is a disease, sorry ... softer, slower, wider is the way to grow the future we all want ... - gregory lent

basically VC are getting funding via the global Hedge Funds bowl, w/multi legged swap options. so they (VC's) need ROI's to ensure that they can pay back what they took and make a profit at the same time. They win some and lose some, its a gamble.. Follow the money trail for dynamics of this landscape - Peter Dawson

VCs want companies to make money so they can recoup their investment and it's called a disease? The sickness is that many of the companies that get funded get funded when there is no hint of a business/revenue plan in place or even on the horizon. If more VCs had a strategy to invest in companies destined to actually make money of course there would be less SV whiny minor millionaires and more real business. - Brian Sullivan

VC/Angel is the "lottery for the rich": (A) ~15-20% annual returns (B) lottery chance to make $25 million on your $25,000 if you hit a Netscape, Yahoo, or Google. Most mathematicians who make a profit at Vegas gambling move on to stock markets, futures/commodity trading, financial derivatives, hedge funds, etc... - Mitchell Tsai

+1 for Brian: In the VC biz, that's called "pressure to invest". Not enough good ideas & teams to invest in. Conservative VCs won't find enough investments, thus the "pack" disease of VCs all funding hard drives at the same time. Much more fun chasing pictures on the internet. :-) - Mitchell Tsai

Brian: the companies that get funded that have no obvious business model (PodTech and Twitter, for example) are part of the VC Disease of go for a home run. They were hoping that PodTech would turn into the next YouTube and that Twitter turns into the next Google. Remember, Google didn't make money for the first four years of its existence, and, in fact, were almost shut down because they weren't paying their bills at Exodus. - Robert Scoble

Liking mostly because you say not to listen to Dave Hornik. I think I might actually be starting to like you, Robert. - Cyndy

Echoing Robert: Google burned through $26 million before finding profitability with Bill Gross's (IdeaLab) http://idealab.com/about_ideal... sliding-scale ad fees http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S... I would have been too chicken to put that much money into Google. The sliding-scale ad idea of Goto.com wasn't a "proven" revenue model either. "In November 2001 Gross defaulted on a $50 million personal loan he had taken from the Bank of America to invest in Idealab". - Mitchell Tsai

Using Google as an example of a company that didn't have a business plan but ended up a big success is getting tired as an argument for support of investment of clueless "businesses" and their founders. Investors in Google and the founders won the lottery -- that doesn't justify investing in the lottery as business strategy. Investing in Iphone apps in my mind would also be a waste of money (maybe not quite as idiotic as investing in Facebook apps though). Iphone will not be the winner in the mobile computing sweepstakes- in my mind it is destined for the same scrap heap as the beta tape format. Investors really should be looking outside the SV echo chamber for potential investment successes. - Brian Sullivan

VCs have to see a deal in this way: 3-5 years to get to 10X return. They can't wait 10 years for a payback, their fund is usually only 10 years as far as I know. So they can't fund things that are too far out. Although it seems clear that the iPhone can create opportunities that fit in this framework of 3-5 years to 10X return, so not sure why Hornick was down on it. Nice, controversial post to get us thinking... I think the disease is more like "groupthink" than it is "lack of long-term vision" - Elliott Ng

+1 Brian - Cyndy

Interesting post Robert. May be what Dave is saying is that when a company has proven their concept on the iphone is ready to scale to other platform, then the time is right to actually go after a bigger VC round. I think that both people like Jeff and Dave are key to the entrepreneurship ecosystem: they just target different stages of the company lifecycle. Another way to prove that is that 1) raising too much money on day 1 is the best way to loose the focus necessary to survive and 2) traditional VC firms can not scale to manage 100 x $1-2M deals. - Edwin Khodabakchian

Brian: when I went to Israel a high percentage of developers there proudly showed me their iPhones. And there's not even an Apple store in the country. I HAVE GONE outside the country. Tons of the best iPhone apps are from outside of SV. I also totally disagree about iPhone not being the winner in mobile computing sweepstakes. At least not as the market is today. But I hear Nokia is coming out with something cool in January, so we'll see. And Microsoft told me they are bringing out something cool next year. - Robert Scoble

Brian, maybe the iPhone will wind up like the Atari, who knows. And I would add that many times investments are at least as much due to the people than to the initial technology. However, the iPhone is a game changer. I find that I'm using it more and more to read news, check the weather, etc--some which is new behavior for me, but also some of which I used to do on my notebook. The iPhone is winning out. Is it perfect yet? No. I want more, but there's a systemic change going on here. - Loren Heiny

Loren: the problem with people who don't own iPhones is they just don't see how big a game changer it is. I wish I could get Brian to carry around the four phones I currently have to see how bad these things all are compared to iPhone. The iPhone isn't perfect, either, but it's years ahead of the others. Of course, back in 1989 the Macintosh was years ahead of everything too and see what happened... - Robert Scoble

Deepak: Agreed, look at Amgen and Genentech as classic Biotech examples - Sally Church

Scobles , are yo sure that iPhones are just not hype ? - Peter Dawson

Mr. Scoble - I'll tell you... this disease causes Myopia too. There are SO many fine business opportunities being pitched right here in Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Wichita... Sevin Rosen Funds has a guy here in Tulsa. EARLY stage oriented. Pre-money oriented. Why KPCB or Charles River (or whoever) doesn't grab some initiative and park a good couple of partners in middle-America and work some new land is beyond me. - Gerald Buckley

You'll get little disagreement from me on this one, Robert. But it's not just VCs, it's inertia. OTOH, Brian Sullivan a few comments up makes a great comparison...iPhone (and Facebook for that matter) are heading the way of BetaMax and MiniDisc, and MemoryStick. I may not use MySpace, but they're the VHS of the Social Network game right now. What we need is for someone to invent the DVD. - Andrew Feinberg

Robert: I have absolutely no need for the Iphone (or any "smart" phone) and certainly would not pay the ridiculous prices some people are paying to use them. These products and their supporters are making a couple of fundamental assumptions that I think are flawed: that most normal people are like California geeks that feel the need to be connected at all times and that people will continue to commute and move about daily and have waste travel time to consume using these devices. That may make me an apparent Luddite (or maybe I am a generation removed from understanding the need)but I am still offended by people that answer mobile phones in the middle of a person to person conversation and am equally offended by people at a "real" social gathering with their eyes glued to a 3" screen and thumbs/fingers flailing wildly. - Brian Sullivan

Peter D. define "hype"? I can't be sure that iPhone will "win" the mobile space (I seriously doubt it given current pricing). But they're bound to be closing in on their 10 million units worldwide goal, and especially given the price, that doesn't strike me as hype. - Robert Seidman

I completely respect yet disagree with this post. Most designers are not businessmen, VCs help in other ways than a chequebook. You bring the skills and the idea, they teach you how to squeeze money and create revenue. Great ideas change the world but they're not always profitable. VCs are there strictly for the money and you have to respect that. - Cains

What's wrong with investing in Facebook apps, if you get the exposure it's like advertising on Taxi wheels (I've seen this one). As for the iPhone, it has changed the way people are surfing on mobiles and this advertising market is just at the beginning so i see many companies getting inside. The only question i ask myself is either the company can generate money within 3-5 years or not and should i put my money in as if it was after the bubble burst. - Nir Ben Yona

Brian, here are a couple non-California uses of an Internet connected device like the iPhone. Imagine you're in Nebraska in the spring. A storm rolls in. Tornado sirens blare. If you've got your iPhone with you in the closet or basement or wherever in anticipation of a tornado, you've potentially got access to an Internet radio, weather radar maps, 911, etc in your iPhone. Another example: You're visiting friends/relatives you haven't seen in years. The cameras in the car. You take a pix with your iPhone, email it to family/friends that moment. All of this can be done with other devices, but the iPhone does it in one. - Loren Heiny

Great post. I see no excitement surrounding any other phone. People I know who use Windows Mobile phones have to in order to have access to corporate email. Maybe that will change with Apple licensing AciveSync. - Brett Nordquist

Peter: I'm absolutely convinced that iPhones are not hype. Brian: mobile didn't get hot in California first. You really need to visit Europe or Japan or Korea. There we look pretty stupid in our usage of mobile. As for "needing" stuff, you probably 10 years ago would have told me you don't "need" a cell phone, but today I can't name a single person that I know who doesn't have one, except my baby. You need to travel more and watch what people do when a plane touches down. Everyone starts up their mobiles. - Robert Scoble

Has anyone decided if Apple's implememntation of ActiveSync is any good? - Andrew Feinberg

I guess I'm glad I can have whatever phone I choose, and no need to worry about syncing anything, as I'm not tied to a corporate and all the associated bloatware that goes with it... - Ian May

"First, our society’s most valuable audiences are getting iPhones." Really our most valuable audiences? Archeticts are these type of people? What about doctors, nurses, firemen, policemen, etc. They are way more valuable then any single architect in LA. Get over yourself.... That comment alone made me snort my coffee. I know 4 people who iPhones, neither of them would be somoen who i would define as society's most valuable audiences. - Jonathan Jesse

@Loren Heiny I have a co-worker who used his Windows Mobile device in a Tornado to upload video of the tornado, let people know about that he was safe via email all w/o an iPhone. and from the hotel's bathtub which was the safest place. - Jonathan Jesse

@Loren Heiny: when my son was born i used my windows mobile phone to take pictures and email those pictures to everyone i know from one device.... from a windows mobile phone - Jonathan Jesse

@Brian Sullivan: I completly agree.. I have a Windows Smartphone from work, it is also the only cell phone I have. try taking a vacation when you get constantly reminded that work needs you through emails. I am amazed about how rude it is for people to interupt converstations and text/sms/email/twitter whatever instead of talking with the person face to face in front of them. this is something that i am strugeling with as my phone is always "buzzing" with someething new. - Jonathan Jesse

Ok its not hype.. but with over 715Million users of Mobile technology in China alone. What does a 10M unit sold slice in terms of market penetration to these segments ? Just asking.. So you can see how thin of a slice that iPhone really has in terms of market share. A prodcut may have all the bells and whistles on it, but if major user base is not buying into it. then it could be some real issues. - Peter Dawson

I think the whole VC model is broken. We don't need millions of dollars for our startups anymore, we need $25k or $50k. When I hear about companies getting millions of dollars, I always think, what the hell are they doing with it!? - Dawn

To add scale to the 10M figure, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L... roughly 70% of those will be changing their phone within 5 years. ChinaMobile signs up almost 10M subscribers per month! - Cains

I'll offer this, just me speculating. I'm not sure that the price point of the iPhone is the biggest factor these days. I think we're more bottled by the thought of paying ridiculous prices for sub-par mobile web. I mean seriously, what the heck is with the current rates for cell phone plans. Also, the thought of paying for SMS in 2008 is just silly. It should be included in all plans. Not for the purpose of cutting profits from our providers but rather for American's to catch on to the technology. - Ben Pettit

@ben I vaguely recall Mr. Scoble interviewing someone (was it the FCC commissioner conversation maybe) that had the US basically foregoing SMS and being off & onto the next big thing. SMS won't really stand a chance against what's coming is what I heard. Robert...? Care to put that in better context for us? - Gerald Buckley

Dawn: $25K, $50K, $100K These are the lower-price points for qualified angel investors, who work the lower levels below the first tier of $500K-$3M VCs. One VC person can maybe manage 10-20 investments, so you can divide the size of fund by the number of active partners (x10-20) and figure out what size investments are in a VC-fund's sweet spot. Complicating the issue are some micro-VC funds, angel-type funds, and $5-20K Y-combinator-type-groups. - Mitchell Tsai

Scoble: Great post. Hornik is a very smart guy, but he is hamstrung by the current VC model. VCs need a huge upside because the model dictates that they need to put in a ton of cash on the front end. Most of today's web startups don't require the kind of cash that VCs are used to putting in. That's why Hornik doesn't want to invest in iPhone apps. He wants to invest in companies with hundreds of millions in near-term valuation, not tens on millions. Imho, that is the VC disease -- in SV or out. - Christian Anderson via fftogo

During the last tech bubble my partner and I pitched our idea to McKinsey and some VC's. We were "traditional" businessmen (organic measured growth, control costs etc) and after the pitch the response we got was "Great Idea but forget profits and acquire users at any cost and give us a plan with a 24 month exit, then we can talk". Needless to say we walked. - Michael Sheehan

Robert, I left a long comment on the post with my thoughts. I appreciate that some investors don't have the patience to bet early and let an idea run its course. That said, I don't think I am a good poster-child for that problem. August Capital has a long history of betting early and supporting our companies for as long as it takes to create an interesting business. - David Hornik

@cyndy Curious what I said or did to deserve your comment? - David Hornik

David: thanks, I just wrote a new post about this new world where people like you help us arrive at the truth by participating. Appreciate that a lot. - Robert Scoble

Gerald: SMS is seeing some pickup here, but, really, look at Twitter, which is what my son is using now increasingly, or Facebook. If you have an iPhone both of those are a lot better than SMS. Also, my phone is increasingly getting SMS spam, which will really piss people off and keep them from adopting that system. - Robert Scoble

This is not too dissimilar from the Innovator's Dilemma concept by Christensen. The "right" business decision ("right" as in profit-maximizing) would be to invest in big, rich markets: that's precisely why there is an opportunity for disruptors to enter the market. - Tito Costa

+1 for Michael Sheehan. - Mitchell Tsai

None of this seems like rocket science. Valley VCs want big returns in short amount of time. Asking them to invest in small slower-growing but sustainable markets is like going to Ford Motor headquarters and asking to buy a windshield wiper. It isn't the scale that they're working at. - Michael

While you make some valid points, Robert, I don't it is fair to call it a disease. Looking for investments with a short-term return potential is certainly a legitimate investment strategy. I can't fault them for opting for perferring lower risk, quicker payoff investments, rather than longer-term (and thus higher risk) investment that *may* payoff huge in 10 years. That said, there are other types of investment strategies out there -- I think your post highlights a void that needs to be filled. - Mark Carey via Moopz

I still think, after reading the post, the follow up and this thread, that a VC is perfectly entitiled to pick and choose investments based on the return. And I'm sure there will be a few start-ups that have a Walmart business plan - take two asprin and call me in ten years. Because thats the way it is in technology (not just SV). The issue here is that we don't hear form these companies. We may well get the next Google, Microsoft, Sun, HP, etc from there. - Roberto Bonini

I thing this disease is more of a symptom of greed and ego vs. making a difference in the tech world. But then again, isn't that what business is about? It is very hard for traditional business to grasp this concept, and is why real innovation wont be found there. - Venson Kuchipudi

The problem with VC's is not that they have a disease but that there is no quality control. I am sure the good ones are very good but most of us never get to work with the good ones. On the other hand, I believe many Entrepreneurs (in the Silicon Valley) are in fact infected with a disease which is that they think the only way to start companies and generate net worth is with VC money. VC's are like "former" mother-in-laws. They cease to be a problem when you stop sleeping with their daughters. - Denny K Miu

edythe posted a link

Bon Ton · Summer Mix

July 21 at 1:36 am - via Bookmarklet - Link

Cee Bee and Brett Nordquist liked this

good list... I would aslo include Suddenly Last Summer by the Motels - Michael W. May via twhirl

edythe favorited photos on Flickr

July 13 at 12:36 am - Link

Mladen Srdić, Michael W. May, Anna Haro, Cee Bee and 5 other people liked this

what are you using, colorpickr or something? - Cee Bee

edythe posted an entry on Last Loved MP3's

Bon Iver - Flume

July 13 at 12:00 am - Link

Emma and Brett Nordquist liked this

Jason Calacanis posted a link

are you getting the iPhone 3G?

July 10 at 10:11 pm - via Bookmarklet - Link

Akshay Dodeja, AJ Batac, Nick Mutton, Brett Nordquist and 2 other people liked this

if yes, why... if no, why not? - Jason Calacanis via Bookmarklet

yes because i am an early adopter and one with it. 401k? what's that? - Mona N.

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Just saw you on Leo's live show. :) Anyway, I do want one eventually, but the only thing that catches my eye is the 3G. After watching others play with the new 2.0 version, it looks like the majority of the stuff I wanted to do is in the software update. For now I think I'm going to stick with my current iPhone, and use the new firmware. - Dennis Jackson

Yep. Been wanting a smart phone for a few years now. Wanted to get the first generation phone, but was trapped in a contract. - Justin Korn

Not right away. I don't really do much that would make use of the GPS and I'm not clear if the apps I'll be using will benefit greatly from 3G. - nicerobot

Two words: replaceable battery - Mona N.

No, not until 3G is in NH. - Mike Mackley

Yes... because last year... I waited 3 HOURS to get an iPhone. 8GB was sold out. So I got a 4GB. I can has more memory? Yes. I will has. ( LOLcat grammar breaking through ) Watching twitlive.tv and waiting until launch time! - Gary Bacon II

no...still love my iphone v1 :) - don loeb

Not yet, pretty happy with my iPhone 2g and 2.0 firmware right now... - Ross Armer

no... no ...no,,,, unless it is free. - Noah David Simon

Nah... even the simple iPhone has a ridiculous price, I don't even want to know what this one costs :) - Roland Hesz

Already have 2.0 and 3G doesn't extend to my neck of the woods so I'll wait till it does or I move... whichever comes first - zach chisholm

No, I like my Blackberry to much - Steven Trullinger

Not sure it's worth the upgrade. Too bad ATT has to sour the deal. - Jeremy Ross

the iphone is a great first "smart" phone, but i'm holding out until at least the blackberry thunder releases so i can make an informed comparison. - Cee Bee

Na, ver-1.0 still has it's merits. Don't see any compelling reason to upgrade from ver1.0 - captainsniz

No. 3G would be nice, but I mostly use my 1.0 version on WiFi and the 2.0 software is all I'm interested in. - Adam Turetzky

I will be, but not until the start of August as my Verizon contract is not out till August 5th. I've just graduated from college and still working on a full time job. I already have the money saved up the pull for the entire two years contract plus a good amount more. Yeah it might not be the wisest least expensive choice. It is going to be my one have fun thing until I get a job. Gotta have some fun things in life. Being a gadget nerd this fulfills it. - Dean Clark

Seriously, they even have instructional videos and docs on how to turn your 2g iPhone into a Wi-Fi iPod touch LOL - Mona N.

I am not, I ordered a new Blackberry 7100i today instead. I already have two phones on two carriers, I dont need a third phone on a third carrier otherwise I would consider it. That and I dont have the money. Luckily the new Blackberry is for work so I dont have to pay for it. - pcnerd37

had 2 blackberries, and only email works right - iphone means seamless syncing to leopard, and that's why i'm paying extra for the early upgrade. - Eric Marden

yes. yes. yes. and i will suffer windows mobile no longer. - Bob DeAmbra via twhirl

Of course. Paid someone to wait in line for me on iPhone 1 launch day and (the girlfriend still makes fun of me for it) I've loved almost every minute with it since. The unloved minutes are the ones being pissed about AT&T "service" and dropped calls. I love the iPhone dearly though, and wouldn't think of using anything else. It's an actual bona-fide new computing platform. An insanely great one. There's no way I wouldn't want to be right with it as it changes the industry again. - (steve isaacs)

Nope. I can't support a closed system. Besides, I willingly PAID to leave AT&T a few years ago! - Oliver Ortega Chua

It's not available on T-Mobile, so I'm waiting for BB Bold. - Jimmy Gleason

yes. I've held out for 2nd generation so it's time. - Tsega Dinka

It is time indeed, keeping my BB Pearl and getting my 1st iPhone. - Nicholas Kreidberg

No. Can't justify the cost - don't use the phone that much. - Wilson Afonso

People don't give the iPhone enough credit. It revolutionalized the cell phone industry in the US and reached a market that extends beyond business users (BB) and IM/texters (Sidekick) imho - Mona N.

i'm a maybe. I don't really want to pay more than i am already but I like shiny new tech gadgets as much as anyone. - Doug Brooks

Maybe, my Mom has the "first edition" iPhone and i like it. I'm not sure if the 3G technology is available in Buffalo. From what I've seen on twitlive it looks interesting. - Molly

7 1/2 hours and counting... - Tom Cheredar

i'm running 2.0 on the edge - and loving it. no plans to upgrade to the 3g. the location aware apps are good enough for my needs. however this all may change, if and only if, att gives a huge employee discount on the phone. we'll see. - Cole Orton

Yep. Using the old "wife needs a cellphone" ploy to upgrade. - Dylan Parker

I am not, I am really happy with the 2.0 software. I am going to try to wait because I dont need 3G or GPS that badly. - Rajiv Doshi

No - Data plans too expensive down under and I'm still not convinced about the openness of the platform. - Peter Kelley

Yep, at the Domain Apple store in Austin, TX! - Seth

Yes, at the Third Street Promenade because I want the GPS for loopt and i also would like the 3g for using MLB At Bat on the go. - Andrew Fielding

Yes, primarily because of the FAST data and the GPS is a nice add-on for me - Grant

FAST data? are you kidding me? If you want speed, get a real phone - Paul Moss via Alert Thingy

If only. Being a musician doesn't pay enough.....yet! - Joe Storm

I'm VERY happy with the new T-Mobile Blackberry Pearl 8120! I'd still like to play with a 3G iPhone but I LOVE my Blackberry! - Jeff Garlick

nope, not until it can surpass what i already have on my modded Tilt. i just hope the 3G net doesn't come to a screeching halt with the influx of new iPhones. - Jericho

nope, too expensive (here in belgium) and still isn't a decent smartphone - chris demeyere

Not yet. $15/mo extra on top of my current $95/mo bill is outrageous! - Justin Bradshaw

Not as long as my bum points downwards. Can't stand them, never have, never will. Also, being in the UK and being restricted to using the O2 network doesn't hold any favours either. Considering the size of the UK, 3G coverage is rubbish unless you are 2ft away from a basestation. - Chris Wright

Lucretia Pruitt favorited a photo on Flickr

lightning through my camera

July 10 at 3:49 pm - Link

Vezquex, Mark Forman, Andrea Baker, M. Donaldson and 8 other people liked this

HOLY FRICK! So glad she's okay! And she was grounded! - Aaron Brazell

W O W - Shey

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damn. i wonder if she gets free cable now. - Cee Bee

Whoa - Jordan Hofker

That is really crazy... - Tim Costantino

holy crap! - Tim Hoeck via NoiseRiver

Intense. - Oliver Ortega Chua

I'm amazed that, seeing that the lightning apparently traveled from one arm to another, it didn't go through her heart. Insanely lucky, I'd say. - Daniel Bruce

Jason Calacanis posted a message on Twitter

“6,229 people watching @leolaporte 's 24 hours of iphone 3g. wow... that;s insane!”

July 10 at 8:44 pm - Link

(steve isaacs), Alan Root, Bryan Landers, Jonas and 7 other people liked this

When are you going to be on Jason??? ;-) - Da-Chief

Jason is on live right now with Leo. Healthy discussion. - Akshay Dodeja

Now past 6400 with the chat room maxed out at 500. Too bad Leo can't borrow Uncle Walt's 3G iPhone for the demos. - Bill Koslosky

Have it in a tab as I surf and work. Good stuff. You and Leo are doing great. - (steve isaacs)

it was fun to be involved, but the vid was very choppy for me - TechChic

Todd Langowski posted a message on Twitter

“Big K is on the warpath today! Thanks to the little speaker timer snafu.”

July 7 at 8:53 am - Link

Brett Nordquist liked this

Todd Langowski posted a message on Twitter

“The big K is not a happy camper today.”

July 7 at 10:41 am -